Crni labud – Čuvar znanosti

By | 25-07-2020
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Da vas zamolim da zamislite labuda, vjerojatno biste zamislili pticu dugog vrata snježno bijele boje. Zanemariv broj ljudi bi automatski zamislio crnog labuda. Iako znam da postoji, osobno ga nisam vidio. Upravo taj kontrast između tako učestale pojave bijelog labuda i iznimno rijetke pojave crnog labuda služila je stoljećima kao analogija za opisivanje znanstvene misli. Verzija je mnogo, no dvije su temeljne – slične ali dovoljno različite. Prema jednoj verziji, crni labud predstavlja potpuno neočekivan događaj, koji se događa jednom u nekoliko milijuna godina, te učvršćuje određenu teoriju u smislu da „iznimka potvrđuje pravilo“. U drugoj verziji on je temelj opovrgavanja jedne teorije kojim se potiče nastanak nove.

Crni labud nekad

Svoj mitski status crni labud stjecao je sve do kraja 17. stoljeća do kad se vjerovalo da postoje samo bijeli labudovi iz prostog razloga što nitko nije vidio crnog labuda. Kad su ga napokon istraživači uočili u zapadnoj Australiji, njegov mitski status je dodatno učvršćen kao primjer manjkavosti induktivnog načina razmišljanja. Primjer takvog razmišljanja je da sam danas, kao i jučer, popio crni čaj i dobio 5 u školi, te zaključujem da samo budala ne bi vidjela očitu poveznicu između crnog čaja i inteligencije. Koristeći se induktivnim pristupom, sve smo uvjereniji u točnost naše teorije promatrajući samo primjere koji su u skladu s njom. Opažanje da sam nakon bjesomučnog ispijanja crnog čaja dobio jedinicu bi opovrgnula moju teoriju o povezanosti crnog čaja i mog uspjeha te bi ujedno predstavljala crnog labuda.

Crni labud danas

Crni labud je na naša vrata zakucao, nažalost, tek 2019. godine. Tada je jedna politička stranka svoj izborni poraz prozvala fenomenom crnog labuda. Isprva nisam bio siguran znaju li da su zapravo tako javno priznali da je njihova teorija o kvaliteti njihove stranke opovrgnuta te da je red da se promisli o novoj teoriji. No, dnevne novine su prenijele vijest da su iz stranke citirali poznatog filozofa Nassim Nicholas Taleba, a ne prijašnje filozofe znanosti. Navedeni je autor globalni uspjeh postigao knjigom u kojoj crnim labudom naziva i opisuje pojavu velike krize 2008. godine. Uspoređujući događaj zbog kojeg su milijuni ostali bez posla s osvojena dva mandata manje od očekivanog, stranka je uspješno zaokupila pažnju javnosti kao što to zorno prikazuje količina pretraga pojma „crni labud“ u tom vremenskom periodu. Na Slici 1 je prikazan interes građana za pojam „crni labud“ u 2018. i 2019. godini. Vrhunac interesa se javlja neposredno nakon što je izjava prenesena iz čega zaključujem da se ne radi o opće poznatom pojmu u javnosti. Isto tako, red bi bio da upoznamo i onu važniju labudovu ulogu – čuvara znanosti.

Slika 1. Interes za pretraživanje pojma “crni labud” na Google-u u Hrvatskoj 2018-2019 godine

Crni labud kao čuvar znanosti

Jedan od najvažnijih koncepata u znanosti, prikazan na primjeru crnog labuda, skovao je John Stuart Mill a popularizirao Karl Popper. Radi se o pojmu pod engleskim nazivom falsifiability (Milas ga prevodi kao oborivost). Jedna od bitnih odlika dobre znanstvene teorije je mogućnost da se ona obori. Nikad ne možemo sa sigurnošću znati da smo opazili sve pojave koje naša teorija predviđa jer ih može biti jako puno, skoro pa i više nego bijelih labudova. Kako bismo čuvali snagu i energiju, Popper predlaže da je jednostavnije potražiti primjere koji mogu opovrgnuti teoriju, odnosno potražiti crnog labuda. Teorije kojima ne možemo naći crnog labuda smatramo znanstvenim a teorije kojima nađemo crnog labuda – nazivamo svakakvim ružnim nazivima, no kroz daljnji tekst nazivat ćemo ih ne-znanstvenim teorijama.

Znanost vs. ne-znanost

Usporedimo dva primjera očito znanstvene (teorija gravitacije) i ne-znanstvene teorije (astrologija) te provjerimo kako se nose sa svojim crnim labudovima.

Ne ulazeći preduboko u teoriju gravitacije (budući nisam fizičar), mislim da je općepoznato da nas Zemlja privlači što nam omogućava da hodamo njome a da ne odletimo u svemir. Do sad još nismo naišli na primjerke ljudske vrste koji dvoje oko istinitosti gravitacije no to ne znači da nećemo. Šteta bi bila da ravnozemljašima nitko ne pravi društvo. Crni labud teorije gravitacije bilo bi opažanje da bacanjem predmet u zrak on nastavlja kretanje prema nebu i van u svemir konstantnom ili većom brzinom nego je lansiran bez vanjske pomoći. Znanstvenici su pobacali različite predmete na različitim dijelovima svijeta i niti jednom nisu uspjeli dobaciti kamen u svemir niti se podignuti par centimetara od poda (naravno, ne računajući ljude sa sposobnošću levitacije, to je drugo).

Slika 2. Primjer događaja koji bi osporio Newtonovu teoriju

Primjer neznanstvene discipline (blago rečeno) je astrologija. Prema mom laičkom shvaćanju (a zar postoji drugačije), srž astrologije je da položaj planeta na neki mističan način, poznat pojedincima s visokim astrološkim školama, utječe na ljudsku sudbinu. Pojednostavimo do kraja problem te recimo da ljudi rođeni u trenutku kad je Mars izlazio iz Venere imaju više novaca od ljudi koji nisu rođeni u trenutku Marsovog izlaska iz Venere. Kad bismo provjerili s koliko novca raspolažu jedni i drugi, ustanovili bismo da bez obzira na Marsov i Venerin odnos, ljudi su podjednako pametni, glupi, bogati i siromašni – odnosno opazili bismo crnog labuda astrologije.

Slika 3. Trenutak tik pred ulazak Marsa u Veneru

Zaključak

Za kraj, jedan mentalni eksperiment. Kako bi reagirao fizičar koji bi opazio da je, prilikom dodjele diploma, bacio kapu u vis i više je nije vidio? A kako bi reagirao astrolog koji ustanovi da nema razlike u bogatstvu između 100 ljudi rođenih na vrhuncu (!) odnosa Marsa i Venere i 100 ljudi rođenih u trenutku kad je Venera već block-ala Mars na Instagramu? Moja je pretpostavka da bi fizičari poništili dodjelu diploma te bi svi morali iznova upisati studij fizike obzirom da je sve što su do tad naučili bilo krivo. S druge strane, dojma sam da bi astrolog zaključio kako je očito da smo ignorirali činjenicu da se u odnos Marsa i Venere umiješala Merkurčina.

Članak možete prokomentirati na našoj FB stranici

Ako mislite da su članci o znanosti suhoparni, ovaj vam možda poljulja teoriju 😄

Objavljuje Psihološki prostorNedjelja, 26. srpnja 2020.
https://www.facebook.com/PPTest-109728337467570/posts/159175585856178

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